TL;DR: Forecasters expect a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season starting June 1, but officials say one storm can still cause severe flooding and urge households to complete insurance, water, power and evacuation preparations now.

2026 season outlook calls for fewer storms

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season runs June 1 through November 30, according to the City of Philadelphia Office of Emergency Management.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasters project a 55% chance of below-normal activity, the City of Philadelphia reported on May 28, 2026.

The National Weather Service outlook cited by Inside Climate News predicts eight to 14 named storms, including three to six hurricanes and one to three major hurricanes of Category 3, 4 or 5 strength.

Major hurricanes pack winds of 111 mph or greater, according to Inside Climate News.

A typical season is characterized by 14 named storms, including seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, Inside Climate News reported.

The NOAA outlook included a 55 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 35 percent chance of a near-normal season and a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season, according to Inside Climate News.

Forecasters at Colorado State University similarly predicted a below-average season, with 13 named storms, including six hurricanes and two major hurricanes, Inside Climate News reported.

North Carolina State University researchers forecast six to nine hurricanes and 12 to 15 named storms, compared with averages of seven hurricanes and 14 named storms, according to the North Carolina Department of Insurance.

Storms become hurricanes once their maximum sustained wind speed reaches at least 74 mph and are categorized from 1 to 5, according to the City of Philadelphia.

The higher the category, the greater the chance for property damage, the City of Philadelphia reported.

Why a quiet forecast does not mean low risk

Forecasters based their predictions on an expected El Niño that is likely to develop during the season, according to Inside Climate News.

An El Niño begins with unusually warm waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and can affect weather patterns worldwide, Inside Climate News reported.

In the Atlantic Ocean the phenomenon can suppress activity, as it tends to cause more wind shear that can break apart the storms, according to Inside Climate News.

Warm water temperatures in the Atlantic were expected to help the storms that do develop rapidly intensify, Inside Climate News reported.

Haiyan Jiang, a meteorologist at Florida International University, said there was a high chance of a strong El Niño that could boost water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico, according to Inside Climate News.

The NWS outlook was for overall seasonal activity and did not include predictions for when or where hurricanes might make landfall, as that is determined by short-lived weather patterns, according to Inside Climate News, citing the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which oversees the National Weather Service.

Colorado State forecasters said waters in the western tropical Atlantic were warmer than normal but the eastern tropical and subtropical Atlantic were slightly cooler than normal, according to Inside Climate News.

They said a warmer Atlantic also tends to lead to lower atmospheric pressure and a more unstable atmosphere, which can boost hurricane activity, Inside Climate News reported.

The Colorado State forecasters said the probability of a hurricane making landfall was 32 percent for the entire U.S. coastline, 15 percent for the U.S. East Coast including the Florida peninsula and 20 percent for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle to Brownsville, Texas, according to Inside Climate News.

“It just takes one,” said Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service, according to Inside Climate News.

Hurricane Florence made landfall in coastal North Carolina in September 2018, dropping more than 30 inches of rain in parts of the state, according to the North Carolina Department of Insurance.

Hurricane Helene, which had tropical storm winds when it hit North Carolina, dropped a similar amount of rainfall in the western part of the state, according to the North Carolina Department of Insurance.

Tropical Storm Chantal, which hit the Carolinas in July 2025, caused significant flooding even though its rainfall numbers were only a fraction of those from Florence and Helene, according to the North Carolina Department of Insurance.

Although no hurricanes made landfall in the U.S. last year, Hurricane Melissa devastated Jamaica as a Category 5 storm, causing nearly $9 billion in damage and 95 fatalities across the Caribbean, according to Inside Climate News.

Heavy rain, high wind gusts, rising waterway levels, and tornadoes can happen inland, away from where a hurricane makes landfall, according to the City of Philadelphia.

Thunderstorms that produce high wind, lightning, and heavy rainfall can be damaging without a named storm, according to the City of Philadelphia.

Insurance check now because coverage takes time

All homeowners and renters can purchase flood insurance regardless of where they live, according to the City of Philadelphia.

Most standard home insurance policies or rental agreements do not include flood insurance, the City of Philadelphia reported.

It can take 30 days for flood insurance to take effect, according to the City of Philadelphia.

Homeowners’ insurance policies do not cover damage from flooding, according to the North Carolina Department of Insurance.

If renting, a landlord’s insurance will not cover personal property and a renters’ insurance policy is needed to protect personal items, according to the North Carolina Department of Insurance.

Residents should review insurance policies before storm season, trim trees around the home and create an evacuation plan that includes arrangements for pets, according to Miami-Dade County guidance published May 28, 2026.

The City of Philadelphia directs residents to the National Flood Insurance Program for more information about flood coverage.

North Carolina Insurance Commissioner Mike Causey advises residents to know what an insurance policy covers and does not cover, according to the North Carolina Department of Insurance.

Residents should know how to contact an insurance agent or company to file a claim, according to the North Carolina Department of Insurance.

For storm-preparation information in North Carolina, the North Carolina Department of Insurance lists www.ncdoi.gov/disaster and the Consumer Services Division at 855-408-1212.

Documents, inventory and money to pack

Insurance policies and personal documents, such as identification, should be up to date, according to the City of Philadelphia.

Copies should be kept in a secure password-protected digital space because documents may be needed to apply for and receive assistance after a disaster, according to the City of Philadelphia.

Important paperwork to gather in advance includes insurance policies, medical records and prescriptions, according to the North Carolina Department of Insurance.

Copies should be brought if forced to evacuate a home, according to the North Carolina Department of Insurance.

A home inventory should list brand name, description, estimated value and date of purchase for items room by room, according to the North Carolina Department of Insurance.

Receipts, appraisal documents and serial numbers are helpful, along with videos or photographs of belongings, according to the North Carolina Department of Insurance.

The inventory and related documents should be stored in a safe, easily accessible place online, on a smartphone, on a computer or in a fire-proof box or safe deposit box, according to the North Carolina Department of Insurance.

Waterproof folders protect documents and photos in a personal evacuation bag, according to the Tampa Bay Times checklist republished by GovTech.

Cash is needed because loss of power or cell service can prevent credit-card or mobile payments, according to the Tampa Bay Times checklist republished by GovTech.

Water, food and medicine for seven days

Emergency officials say households should have seven days’ worth of nonperishable food and water per family member, including pets, according to the Tampa Bay Times checklist republished by GovTech.

The standard rule is at least 1 gallon of water per day for each person, according to the Tampa Bay Times checklist republished by GovTech.

Electricity may go out, so extra drinking water is needed, according to the North Carolina Department of Insurance.

The bathtub should be filled with water for bathing and flushing the toilet when power loss is expected, according to the North Carolina Department of Insurance.

Food in an emergency toolkit and to-go bag should be checked for expiration dates, according to the North Carolina Department of Insurance.

Households should keep at least 30 days’ worth of prescription medication on hand, according to the Tampa Bay Times checklist republished by GovTech.

A sufficient supply of medication should be ensured as a storm approaches, and battery-powered medical devices should be charged, according to the City of Philadelphia.

Items for every family member, including pets, should be included in emergency supplies, according to the North Carolina Department of Insurance.

Power, light and safe cleanup gear

Flashlights should be checked to confirm they still work and batteries should be checked for leaks before the season, according to the Tampa Bay Times checklist republished by GovTech.

A personal evacuation bag should include flashlights, a battery-operated or hand-crank radio, batteries, portable power banks, phone charging cables and wall chargers, according to the Tampa Bay Times checklist republished by GovTech.

A NOAA Weather Radio that operates on battery or hand-crank power is listed for personal and home kits, according to the Tampa Bay Times checklist republished by GovTech.

A headlamp leaves both hands free for tasks after dark, while a battery-powered fan can provide comfort during humid summer weather without air conditioning, according to the Tampa Bay Times checklist republished by GovTech.

A battery-powered carbon monoxide detector is listed for homes using gas-powered generators, according to the Tampa Bay Times checklist republished by GovTech.

A portable generator should never be operated indoors or near a door or window because of carbon monoxide danger, according to the Tampa Bay Times checklist republished by GovTech.

Home supplies listed include bleach for mold cleanup, garbage bags, plastic sheeting, tarps, duct tape, paper towels, personal antibacterial wipes, hand soap, toilet paper and a fire extinguisher, according to the Tampa Bay Times checklist republished by GovTech.

Long-handle squeegees are listed for scraping mud from a flooded home, according to the Tampa Bay Times checklist republished by GovTech.

Secure the home and move valuables higher

Hanging tree branches, loose shingles, patio furniture and other outdoor objects can cause damage or injuries in a storm, according to the North Carolina Department of Insurance.

Large outdoor objects should be secured and repairs made to reduce the threat, according to the North Carolina Department of Insurance.

Drains and gutters should be cleared and sewer entrances on the block cleared as a storm approaches, according to the City of Philadelphia.

Outside furniture or outdoor items should be secured or brought inside, according to the City of Philadelphia.

Valuables, electronics and appliances in a basement or lowest level should be placed above the floor using shelving units or plastic storage totes, according to the City of Philadelphia.

Vehicles should be moved to a higher location away from low-lying locations like underground garages or an underpass, according to the City of Philadelphia.

Shutters, roofs and fences should be inspected for needed repairs or replacements, and trees pruned before the season, according to the Miami Herald hurricane guide updated May 27, 2026.

Alerts, river gauges and evacuation routes

Free email or phone alerts from the City of Philadelphia provide National Weather Service and other important information, according to the City of Philadelphia.

Residents can text READYPHILA to 888-777 for phone alerts or customize email or text alerts on the city website, according to the City of Philadelphia.

Other alerts may come through the Emergency Alert System and Wireless Emergency Alert, which require no sign-up, according to the City of Philadelphia.

Wireless Emergency Alert messages are available in English and Spanish, and phones must have Spanish selected as the preferred language in phone settings to receive Spanish messages, according to the City of Philadelphia.

Philadelphia’s Office of Emergency Management developed flood-monitoring technology that includes a website with cameras and gauges in some of the city’s most flood-prone areas, according to the City of Philadelphia.

Alerts on flood levels on the Delaware and Schuylkill Rivers are available by customizing ReadyPhiladelphia alerts, according to the City of Philadelphia.

Everyone in a house should know emergency plans that include having a home shelter-in-place kit, a go bag, and where to go if evacuation is needed, according to the City of Philadelphia.

Residents should check whether they live in an evacuation zone and discuss possible evacuation routes with family, according to the Miami Herald hurricane guide.

Sources referenced